Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• Asia
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in North America
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Mexico
  • US
  • Panama
  • Belize
  • Costa Rica
  • Canada
  • Honduras
  • Guatemala
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • El Salvador
  • Jamaica

Analysis of the most affected countries in North America⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Mexico⮸

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,133,613$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,134,066.8}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 162.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,134,066.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $107,565$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,855.3}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 137.7)}}\) (asimptote \(103,855.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $189,481$ on 2020-12-02

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,921,374$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,464,097.8}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 261.5)}}\) (asimptote \(23,464,097.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $273,446$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{260,365.1}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 117.7)}}\) (asimptote \(260,365.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,325,800$ on 2020-12-02

Panama⮸

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $169,339$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{161,815.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 164.4)}}\) (asimptote \(161,815.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,114$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,985.0}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 150.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,985.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $19,649$ on 2020-12-02

Belize⮸

Population $397,628$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,854$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,458.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 230.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,458.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $148$ on 2020-12-02

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,555$ on 2020-12-02

Costa Rica⮸

Population $5,094,118$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $141,340$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{153,071.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 207.1)}}\) (asimptote \(153,071.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,739$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,858.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 198.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,858.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $51,375$ on 2020-12-02

Canada⮸

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $393,506$ on 2020-12-02

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,342$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,681.9}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 58.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,681.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $66,635$ on 2020-12-02

Honduras⮸

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $109,144$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{111,104.6}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 160.1)}}\) (asimptote \(111,104.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,930$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,903.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 140.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,903.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $57,337$ on 2020-12-02

Guatemala⮸

Population $17,915,568$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $123,460$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117,872.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 147.6)}}\) (asimptote \(117,872.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,191$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,903.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 125.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,903.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,088$ on 2020-12-02

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

El Salvador recovered 82%
Jamaica recovered 11%

El Salvador⮸

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $39,130$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{35,823.5}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 136.3)}}\) (asimptote \(35,823.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,129$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,040.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 133.6)}}\) (asimptote \(1,040.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,162$ on 2020-12-02

Jamaica⮸

Population $2,961,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,864$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,012.4}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 197.1)}}\) (asimptote \(11,012.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $258$ on 2020-12-02

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{261.6}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 204.4)}}\) (asimptote \(261.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,106$ on 2020-12-02