Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,133,613$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,134,066.8}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 162.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,134,066.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $107,565$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{103,855.3}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 137.7)}}\) (asimptote \(103,855.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $189,481$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $13,921,374$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{23,464,097.8}{1 + 10^{-0.006 (t - 261.5)}}\) (asimptote \(23,464,097.8\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $273,446$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{260,365.1}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 117.7)}}\) (asimptote \(260,365.1\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $8,325,800$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $169,339$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{161,815.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 164.4)}}\) (asimptote \(161,815.7\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $3,114$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,985.0}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 150.7)}}\) (asimptote \(2,985.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,649$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,854$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,458.4}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 230.6)}}\) (asimptote \(8,458.4\))
Start date 2020-04-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $148$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,555$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $141,340$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{153,071.1}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 207.1)}}\) (asimptote \(153,071.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,739$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,858.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 198.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,858.5\))
Start date 2020-03-09 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $51,375$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $393,506$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $12,342$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,681.9}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 58.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,681.9\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $66,635$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $109,144$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{111,104.6}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 160.1)}}\) (asimptote \(111,104.6\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,930$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,903.2}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 140.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,903.2\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $57,337$ on 2020-12-02
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $123,460$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{117,872.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 147.6)}}\) (asimptote \(117,872.3\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $4,191$ on 2020-12-02
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,903.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 125.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,903.8\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $7,088$ on 2020-12-02